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Dec 7, 2012
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now, again, back to hurricane sandy. from the commissioner's statement, the storm we saw happen on october 29th, the next pay period ended on november 12th. the way bls essentially keeps score it says workers have to be off work for the entire pay period to be counted on the negative side. on the household survey side, persons who missed work for weather-related events are counted as employed whether or not they are paid for the time off. we did have a drop in the labor force participation rate, down 0.2 to 63.6%. how did we get to 7.7% unemployment? basically the number of unemployed persons dropped more than the number of employed and there were downward trends in both those categories. lots to chew on. back to you guys. >> hampton, thank you. we are kind of scratching our heads. let's get more reaction from our panel. mark zandi and jared bernstein are here with us. mark, what do you make of this number? we've set this up as numbers were not going to be things we watched closely because of sandy. >> i'd say two things
now, again, back to hurricane sandy. from the commissioner's statement, the storm we saw happen on october 29th, the next pay period ended on november 12th. the way bls essentially keeps score it says workers have to be off work for the entire pay period to be counted on the negative side. on the household survey side, persons who missed work for weather-related events are counted as employed whether or not they are paid for the time off. we did have a drop in the labor force participation...
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Dec 26, 2012
12/12
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among the reasons cited for the weaker numbers, superstorm sandy and consumer nervousness about tax hikes due to the fiscal cliff. we've had lots of conversation about whether not fiscal cliff would impact consumer sentiment. and apparently now it's actually hitting people in the wallet. let's talk about what's on the economic agenda today. one very important report to watch, standard and poor's releasing the case schiller index on october home sales at 9:00 eastern. it's a busy week for housing data. tomorrow we're going to be getting the commerce department which releases new home sales for november. then on friday, the national association of realtors, not realtors -- >> yeah. >> releases its spending. its pending home sales index for november. >> in other housing news, the obama administration is considering expanding its mortgage refinancing program to include borrowers whose mortgages are not backed by the government and who owe more than their homes are worth. "the journal" reports one proposal being considered would also transfer potentially riskier loans that are held by private
among the reasons cited for the weaker numbers, superstorm sandy and consumer nervousness about tax hikes due to the fiscal cliff. we've had lots of conversation about whether not fiscal cliff would impact consumer sentiment. and apparently now it's actually hitting people in the wallet. let's talk about what's on the economic agenda today. one very important report to watch, standard and poor's releasing the case schiller index on october home sales at 9:00 eastern. it's a busy week for...
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Dec 6, 2012
12/12
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as soon as you get done figuring out, how much is sandy, how much is not sandy, we have to start dealing with the fiscal cliff so there's a shock behind us and a shock in front of us. so we're in limbo right now. and we're expecting a big effect from sandy in the friday number, especially in maybe the household survey, they moved the survey week back a week. because of an early thanksgiving. they do that -- so instead of it being the week of the 12th, it's the week of the 5th. >> so this number is going to tell us nothing tomorrow? > know there's going to be a lot of discussion about it. i'll stick to my guns, it's a 125 to 150 economy growth some of that could be sandy. i don't donknow if you want to k about that chart. this looks at the net effect acceptable. if 30% say it's acceptable and 20% say -- these are what we asked people. how many is that? that's five of eight different solutions. >> people say, yes, we're okay dealing with the fiscal cliff, if you raise taxes on those who make more than $250,000 and then you cap deductions, and virtually everything else is off the table. >>
as soon as you get done figuring out, how much is sandy, how much is not sandy, we have to start dealing with the fiscal cliff so there's a shock behind us and a shock in front of us. so we're in limbo right now. and we're expecting a big effect from sandy in the friday number, especially in maybe the household survey, they moved the survey week back a week. because of an early thanksgiving. they do that -- so instead of it being the week of the 12th, it's the week of the 5th. >> so this...
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Dec 27, 2012
12/12
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all of a sudden then, we had the impacts of sandy, a tragedy up in newtown, connecticut, and just a lot of other factors that just put a damper on the season. >> so, it is fair to say that it started better than it ended now. >> it started better than it ended. there was a lot of excitement around black friday. i mean it was almost like the super bowl. they have all this advertising, drag people out, it's the biggest event of the year come shopping, and then week after that we had the pro bowl. there was no excitement. there was no reason to come out shopping. so big bang, but it kind of waned as we went into the season. >> how much of the season is in the books now? i mean, what's still left to happen? >> there's a couple of big days still coming. i think this weekend is a big weekend as people redeem gift cards, go into the stores, exchange items for what they're looking for. hopefully get that add-on sale and people start to take advantage of the clearance sale, i would say, though, 95% of it is in the books. we've probably got some strong days ahead of us, though, that could move it
all of a sudden then, we had the impacts of sandy, a tragedy up in newtown, connecticut, and just a lot of other factors that just put a damper on the season. >> so, it is fair to say that it started better than it ended now. >> it started better than it ended. there was a lot of excitement around black friday. i mean it was almost like the super bowl. they have all this advertising, drag people out, it's the biggest event of the year come shopping, and then week after that we had...
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Dec 24, 2012
12/12
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you think you had the long calendar, the hurricane sandy, the track dpi in connecticut, people had a lot on their minds this season. this weekend was a key weekend. i think it helped. i didn't see promotions being extra promotional. but it's a push till the end. >> okay, so winners and losers? >> i think some of the winners, i think you're going to see companies like tjx, macy's. i think american eagle outfitters, even gap had a very good season, along with michael kors. >> losers? >> i think you had a tough time at jcpenney. i think the traffic was tough there all the time. i think kohl's had to be extra promotional in order to be able to drive the sales. and the whole children's sector was very promotional. from gymboree to children's place. >> so, dana, jason trennert from strat eegous. how are you doing? >> good, how are you, jason? >> good. normally retail stocks outperform in january, because i think that phenomenon that andrew was talking about is that there's a general sense that christmas gifts canceled at a certain point and then it comes back at the end and then you wind u
you think you had the long calendar, the hurricane sandy, the track dpi in connecticut, people had a lot on their minds this season. this weekend was a key weekend. i think it helped. i didn't see promotions being extra promotional. but it's a push till the end. >> okay, so winners and losers? >> i think some of the winners, i think you're going to see companies like tjx, macy's. i think american eagle outfitters, even gap had a very good season, along with michael kors. >>...